El Niño is intensifying
El Niño phenomenon is now “firmly established.”
It is expected to strengthen further in the coming months, reaching “very strong” intensity, with near-certainty that it will persist until February 2027, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
El Niño is a natural phenomenon that recurs every two to seven years. Surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean warm up, leading to hotter, drier weather in some areas and cooler, wetter conditions in others, while triggering extreme weather events. It compounds human-induced global warming and, according to experts, could contribute to making 2027 the hottest year on record. “El Niño will intensify into a very strong event in the coming months, with significant impacts on temperature and precipitation patterns, as well as associated risks of floods, droughts, and extreme heat,” warns a new WMO update. The event “is expected to strengthen further over the coming months, reaching very strong intensity before peaking towards the end of 2026,” the WMO further warns.
Furthermore, the organization notes that the latest seasonal forecasts from WMO global producing centers indicate an “exceptionally high probability”—close to 100%—that El Niño will persist until February 2027
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